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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-06-27T16:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-27T16:23Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47114/-1
CME Note: CME observed to the E only in STEREO A COR2, likely due to being directed towards the SOHO and GOES occulting disks. The source is not too clear, with the most likely candidate being field line movement and slight filament ejecta observed in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 on or near its east limb starting around 2026-06-27T13:45Z. This could also correspond to a brightening loop in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2026-06-27T15:33Z centered ~N05E26 between AR 14479 and AR 14478.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-01T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47116/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-27T16:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-26.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=337.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2026-06-28T03:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-01T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-29T10:38Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260628_030700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 82.20 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-27T21:48Z

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